Extraordinary Evidence

Recently, I've seem some atheists post this flowchart as an indictment on theists' ability to discuss religion. You need not look far to see where most theists fail in this chart. In fact, it needs not "flow" anywhere. The first statement is: Can you envision anything that will change your mind on this topic?

Religious faith, by definition, makes the answer to this question no. If you have doubt, then you don't have faith. How different are atheists? We hang our worldview on critical thinking and the lack of compelling evidence and leave faith out in the cold. I am very certain that atheism is currently the wisest position. Still, we should ask ourselves what kind of evidence would be needed to change this.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. ~ Marcello Truzzi

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. ~ Carl Sagan

The weight of evidence for an extraordinary claim must be proportioned to its strangeness. ~ Pierre-Simon Laplace

In my recent interview series, you may have noticed that I'm consistently asking the question "Is there anything that would convince you that there is a god?" The answers can be paraphrased as "barely." A believer might think that Jesus returning would immediately bring all the infidels into the Christian fold. Not so much. The general consensus is that, atheists would remain skeptical. This new Jesus would be subjected to the scientific questions posed to all supposed evidence. Is he authentic? Are his miracles more than tricks and illusions? Does he provide some wisdom that could only come from God? Some of us go so far to posit he could be the product of other worldly technology. 

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. ~ Arthur C. Clarke

Nevertheless, I would at least consider a magical Jesus in the real world is authentic, but it wouldn't get me speaking in tongues as fast as some other extremely unlikely scenarios. Below is a chart of events that would make a believer out of me. I used Dawkin's Scale of belief to show what degree of belief I would hold for each event. This is an approximation because each event could be more or less convincing depending on the circumstances. Of course, combining events would also hasten my conversion. For example, a previously dead religious figure performing a large-scale miracle with witnesses might seal the religious deal.

Survey Shmurvey

This just in, the U.S. is really fucking religious.

A new report has supported substantial anecdotal evidence on my part that the United States is among the most theist countries in the world. It’s way ahead (or behind from my point of view) the majority of Europe. It’s also troublesome that I live in a country where 60% of its population thinks they are gnostic theists, even though I just spent the last post pointing out that no one can really be gnostic of such matters.

I don’t find anything in the survey too surprising. For instance, it shows that people become more religious with age. This is likely due to the coinvent fact that with a deity comes an afterlife, an idea appealing to those contemplating their mortality. However, I have a few questions about the surveying methods. The U.S. reportedly has a 3% population that “don’t believe in God,” yet 4.4% claim to “not believe in God and never have.” The additional requirement of “never have” should make the 3% necessarily lower, correct? Or do I suck at statistics?

I little inaccuracy aside, it would be hard to get the most telling tidbit of the survey wrong. Year after year, atheism is on the rise. It’s a slow and steady rise, but the hare of lore knows that such a rise can win the race. Eventually, I predict a tipping point where the rise of atheism will escalate rapidly. At some point, believing the minority mythology as truth will just seem silly.

This tipping point won’t likely happen in our lifetime, so I’m not taking any bets. If you are reading this in the distant, secular future, just remember, I told ya so.

What The Hell Am I?

Do you believe in God? It should be a binary, yes or no answer. It is a very simple, yet very big question and the answer defines you in an important way. How you view the world and live your life is likely contingent on your answer.

But there’s a problem. I don’t know if it’s the shifting political correctness of our culture, or just opposing viewpoints projecting their beliefs onto others, but the question has become muddled. Let me help you answer once and for all, are you an atheist, theist, agnostic...what?

This handy question tree should allow even the most inept call centers to ascertain your position. It’s important to note that “Do you believe in God?” is an opinion question. Whether your answer is yes or no, you need not worry about showing your work. You are essentially guessing. Evidence and arguments built on sound reasoning could provide for an educated guess, but a guess none-the-less. People who have dwelled on the topic of theology all their life and those who have just been introduced to the concept of God have equal rights to their opinion. However, if you have no opinion at all, you are an apatheist. This means you don’t care about one of the biggest questions humanity has ever posed and likely live your life as an atheist by default.

From your yes or no response, we come to a question of knowledge. Are you sure that God does or does not exist? Are you 100% positive? This is a hard position to defend no matter which side of the issue you’re on. Generally, theists claim gnostism because their belief system requires absolute faith for the eventual reward. It is my opinion that if you claim certain knowledge, you are mistaken. We are all agnostic, even if we are right, because the question of God as he is typically defined, is unknowable.

Famous agnostic atheist, Richard Dawkins, has his own scale of belief. 1 is a gnostic theist. 2 and 3 are different levels of agnostic theism. 5 and 6 are both agnostic atheists. 7 is the gnostic atheist. The new bit is number 4, the pure agnostic. This is someone who thinks it is just as likely that a higher power exists as not. I’m not sure how you come to such an exact conclusion, but I accept that some might be able to nail down their own belief better than I.

The final way to look at belief is a sliding scale of probability. There are few black and whites in the universe, so the possibility of a creator should allow for shades of grey as well. If you think that it is more than 50% likely that God is up there, you are a theist. Less? You’re an atheist. Exactly halfsies on the issue? That makes you the elusive pure agnostic. Measuring your belief isn’t an exact science, so we are guesstimating here.

Note: Each of these questions and scales may be applied to a vague concept of god or specific definitions of the deity such as Yahweh, Vishnu, Zeus...whoever. For instance, I’m 85% sure that there is no intelligent creator of the universe, but 99.9% sure that Zeus is imaginary. (I just can’t commit to that last 0.1%) While I don’t think one can be gnostic of the concept of god, you can be gnostic of specific Gods if you can prove or disprove their existence.

Some choose to not answer the question of belief for the vague concept of god. If this choice isn’t made out of apathy, they are likely ignostic--thinking a clearer definition is necessary to confess belief.

Alien Jesus vs. Biblical Jesus

Picture this: Jesus returns from the dead in all his glowing, haloed glory with a choir of angels in tow. He may even sport Joseph’s Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat for affect. The exalted figure brings the expected good news and bad news. The faithful will ascend into heaven while the doubting collective will be left behind to die off under the regime of this or that Antichrist.

As an atheist, I’m asked what it would take for me to believe the literal word of the Bible. “Evidence and lots of it.” is my typical response. This Revelations-like scenario would seem to qualify. After all, the faithful’s claim of fulfilled prophecy would suddenly become a lot more compelling, but lets examine this further. Jesus’ arrival and call of acceptance of the Bible would still be a hard pill to swallow, even under the circumstances. I’d be forced to believe that...

• A boat built in a relatively short time by one man can fit every animal on earth and suddenly the net H2O of the planet increases enough to flood every land everywhere.
• The Force-like parting of the Red Sea is a task that Moses can pull off even when I doubt Yoda could.
• A talking snake convinces a woman made from a man’s rib to eat from the one tree the confirmed Creator told them not too--even though said creator made them perfect and never made any talking snakes.
• The raising of Lazarus is the second most impressive non-zombie resurrection in history.
• The spontaneous duplication of rolls and seafood for a stadium-sized crowd is a sustainable business model.
• The divine transmogrification of a woman to salt, water to wine, and a virgin to mother all occurred at one time or another.

I’d have to accept all this, right? The frickin’ King of Kings is eyeballing me! What else could I believe? Well, I could believe that...

• Aliens, biological or artificial in nature, have done basic research into our world and concluded that the most efficient way to gather a manageable population of compliant humans would be to pose as a popular deity. In a diabolically easy plan, the aliens wouldn’t even need an invading army. A single alien could pull this off. He’d probably need a cloaking mechanism for the ship, a holographic projector for the light show, Jesus, and the angels, and maybe a tractor beam to “ascend” the willing believers. This technology would be a given for any intelligence that is able to travel between solar systems. In fact, this technology, aside from the tractor beam, is being researched today and is just far enough from our own scientific ability to appear divine. If you believe we could ever make contact with extra-terrestrials, it is a small jump to believe this could happen.

So what’s the point? Firstly, this is an awesome movie idea and I want credit if it gets produced. Secondly, the alien scenario, while being very unlikely, is still more likely than the more extravagant stories in the Bible.

Picture this: In the future everyone will believe what is consistent with reality.  No, that’s just ridiculous.